Research Stream 2a: Energy systems modelling and internalisation strategies, including scenario building

Objectives

This stream aims at generating (via the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System TIMES 1 ) partial equilibrium technology-rich economic models of each EU Member State / New Accession Country and of the EU as a whole including, in their long term development (time horizon 2050), the most important emissions, materials, and damage functions used by Research Streams 1a (LCA) and 1b (Externalities).

Approach

The core of the methodology is represented by TIMES, the latest IEA-ETSAP bottom-up technology oriented model generator. The use of TIMES will allow research teams to implement and make available a unique partial equilibrium economic model of the EU energy system built upon the trade equilibrium of 29 EU Member State / New Accession Country models having a long term time horizon (2050, by 5-year steps), high technological detail in energy supply and end-use sectors (including endogenous technology learning). This tool will be open and updateable without changing the software, and accessible to other researchers. Moreover its in-built flexibility ensures the integration of the models with LCA and Externality evaluation methodologies.

Expected results

According to different policy options and exogenous scenario assumptions for the time horizon under analysis, this research stream will provide equilibrium quantities and prices of energy vectors (primary energy and secondary fuels), energy technologies, emissions (GHG and local air pollutants) and other burdens. These results are input to both LCA and Externalities for iterative, convergent evaluations. Another important set of results will deal with the assessment of the possible market allocation of new technologies and with the analysis of different policy and measure schemes in order to support national policies, providing a common basic framework for the definition of EU strategies.